Rocket Man- Revised

Loop ID (i.e. R1, B1, etc)	Loop name	Description of the role that the loop plays in the flight of the rocket. That is, “tell the story” about each loop.
B1	Nothing can stop us	Descent rate increases, the Altitude decreases, and the Air density increase, which leads and increase in the Force of air resistance on the rocked, and that decreases the Descent rate.
R1	The gravity effect	The Descent rate increase leads to a decrease in Altitude, which leads to an increase in the Force of gravity on the rocket. That leads to an increase in Downward acceleration from gravity, which increases the Descent rate even more.
B2	Air resistance	Descent rate increases and cause Force of air resistance on the rocket to increase, leading to a decrease in Descent rate.
B3	Run the horses	When the Descent rate goes up, that will impact the Altitude, which will go down. When the Altitude goes down, the Goal Descent Rate will go down, the Throttle setting will increase, leading the Fuel Burn Rate to increase, decreasing Remaining fuel, which will  decrease the Rocket's mass. The lighter the Rocket is the more Upward acceleration from rocket engine, and that will decrease the Descent rate.
B4	Let’s save some fuel	A Fuel Burn Rate increase leads to less Remaining fuel, that makes the Goal descent rate go up, leading to a decrease in the Throttle setting, and that leads to a decrease in Fuel burn rate.
B5	The faster the lighter	When the Descent rate increases, the Altitude will decrease leading Goal descent rate to decrease. Decreasing Goal descent rate will increase Throttle setting which will increase Fuel burn rate, and that will decrease Remaining fuel. A decrease in remaining fuel will cause a decrease in Rocket’s mass, and that is going to decrease Force of gravity on the rocket, which will decrease Downward acceleration from gravity causing the Descent rate to decrease.
B6	Slowdown	In this loop, when Descent rate increases, Altitude will decrease leading Goal descent rate to decrease. Decreasing Goal descent rate will increase Throttle setting, which will increase Fuel burn rate. That will increase Thrust from rocket burn, increasing Upward acceleration, which will decrease Descent rate.

Delays:
There is a delay between Altitude and Goal descent rate, because when the Altitude changes, it is going to take some time until a decision is made to change the Goal descent rate.

Behaviors: 
B1, B2, and R1 play a big role in the early stages of the flight as they depend on the physics factors rather than the human factor. They help determining the goals of the flight and how to achieve them later on, for example: how to control the throttle. 
 B3, B4, B5 and B6 dominate the final stages of the flight as they involve the human factor, where a goal needs to be set and achieved accordingly.

The Impact of the Arab Spring on the United States

  With the beginning of the year 2011, a new wave of change started in Tunisia, leading to what is known today as the Arab Spring. This wave of change reshaped the Middle East as we know it, changed the way revolutions happen, the people’s voice rose over the controlling regimes and took over governments, and the United States government supported this change to encourage the spread of democracy.

The United States support for democracy, with no doubt, was a good approach.  The question here is: Who are these people who are taking over governments, and how is that going to impact U.S interests?

So far, Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, and Libya, had government changes where dictatorship and tyranny came to an end, and a new era of democracy started. The people in these countries practiced their rights and elected new governments and the United States supported the transition. What we can see in common here is that the majority of these newly elected governments are religious based governments, because religious groups were suppressed under dictatorships, and therefore grew very popular over time.

 Why is this a problem now?

Theocracies (such as the Muslim Brotherhood, the ruling party in Egypt) might be more lenient with extremist groups and/or these groups might feel more freedom now since the government became religious based. Extremist groups have always been against U.S interests (citizens, embassies, business, etc.) and therefore, will always seize the opportunity to attack these interests when possible. The American public support is going to react adversely to the attacks on U.S interests, and over time that is going to impact the U.S foreign policy towards the Arab Spring. 

If we look at the Causal Loop Diagram above, we can see two loops:

 In the first one, we see how the U.S Government Support for Arab nations increased while the Arab Spring intensified. The Arab Spring rise caused the Tyranny in these countries to fall, leading to the spread of Democracy. The success of Democracy led to more U.S Government Support. It is a Reinforcing loop, and it represents a mental model. The mental model did not account for who is going to be in charge in these countries post revolution.

Now if we look at the bigger picture, which is represented by the second loop, we will see that Democracy has other effects, or unintended consequences. Democracy led to Theocracy taking over (as explained earlier how religious groups became popular), leading to more tolerance for Extremist groups activity that will increase against U.S Interests, and that is going to impact the U.S Public Support for change in the Middle East, which will (over time) impact the U.S Government Support for the Arab Spring. This is a Balancing loop.

The Rise of Health Care Cost in the United States

Health Care expenditure is rising overtime. According to CMS (Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services), costs have risen from 27 billion in 1960 to almost 2.6 trillion in 2010.¹

The Health Care cost rise is attributed to some hard factors such as:

Obesity: The change in diet and lifestyle had a big impact on Health Care. People are eating more and food nutritional value has declined over time. People are also exercising less, because of the busy lifestyle and this is contributing to an obesity epidemic that adds to health costs.

Uninsured population: So many Americans cannot afford health insurance. Also, illegal immigrants do not have health insurance. According to the law, both groups have to be treated cost free in case of emergencies, if the hospital receives federal money. To keep a solid bottom line, hospitals are raising their costs in order to balance out these unpaid services.

HHS (Health and Human Services, Medicare and Medicaid recipients): The number of Medicare recipients is increasing due to the aging Baby Boomer population. The number of Medicaid recipients is increasing as well, due to the economic situation.

Some soft factors that contribute to the rising Health Care cost are:

New equipment: Hospitals and private clinics are always looking for new technology and equipment to compete with other facilities and provide the latest technology.

Malpractice insurance and suits: Health Care providers have to pay premiums for malpractice insurance. Also, they have to pay for any malpractice suit within the facility.

People using the ER for non-emergency situations: Some people go to the Emergency Room for minor issues that can be taken care of at a family care facility.

Health Care regulations: New Health Care regulations such as the new Health Care Reform pushes Health Care providers to raise the cost of service in order to adjust for the new regulations. 

According to CMS, the cost is projected to reach 4.6 trillion by 2020. ²

Resources:

1.      https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics-Trends-and-Reports/NationalHealthExpendData/downloads/tables.pdf

2.      https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics-Trends-and-Reports/NationalHealthExpendData/downloads/proj2010.pdf